{"id":496,"title":"Ten years ago, I predicted 2022. Did I get it right?","description":"Tom Scott revisits a 2012 talk where he predicted the world of 2022, comparing his predictions to reality. He discusses hits like the evolution of smartphone screens and 5G networks, and misses such as the widespread adoption of lifelogging technology and the continued relevance of blogs. Scott reflects on the shift from desktop to mobile-first design and the rise of social media, concluding with a new prediction for 2032 regarding the future of YouTube and short-form video content.","slug":"ten-years-ago-i-predicted-2022-did-i-get-it-right","creator":"TomScottGo","duration":647.929615,"tags":["Tom Scott","Predictions","2012 vs 2022","Technology","Smartphones","5G","Lifelogging","Social Media","YouTube","Blogging","Future Tech"],"transcription":"In 2012, I told a story about the future. I don't like looking back at things I've made in the past, but in the last couple of weeks I've had some emails saying, Tom, 10 years ago, you tried to predict 2022, or at least some of the technology and online world of 2022. You should look back and see if you were right. So, I've come back to the same place that I gave that talk. Uh, back in summer 2012, this was a warm, friendly, temporary festival site with a load of people on it. And now it's a cold, rundown, deserted bit of scrubland next to a motorway, but it's the same place. I did originally try to film this without having looked back at the talk to get my actual genuine reaction. Uh, and it was a terrible video. I'm bad at improvising and I thought of a dozen more things I wanted to say right afterwards. So, now I've had some time to think. Let's go back 10 years. See what I got right, see what I got wrong, and see if I can predict 10 years from now. I've got a story for you. It's set in a future. Not necessarily the future. I'm not saying this is what will happen. I think that's the first time I ever used that phrase. It's a get out of jail free card, a way to hedge my bets and say, I'm probably gonna be wrong. I use it a lot when I write speculative fiction. April 2022, 10 years time. First person we're gonna meet there is Jason Stewart. He's the MP for Tooting and Streatham. Uh, he is the Minister for Social Development. He's considered kind of a hot shot among his party after winning his seat in the 2020 general election in a very hard-fought contest. All the political guesses there were completely wrong, but then when has anyone ever been able to predict politics? Also, the faces in this talk weren't originally blurred. I've used YouTube's tools to go back and blur them in the original as well. Uh, because there is a big difference between asking a friend, hey, can I borrow your headshot for this talk I'm just giving to a few people, and can I show that to however many people will watch this new video? I've got a duty of care there. This is the 2022 iPhone. Looks about the same, the laws of physics dictate you still need a battery brick. That's a hit. It's a very easy hit. The borders of phone screens are going to get smaller is not exactly a difficult prediction to make, and by sheer luck, I used a black background on the phone so you can't see if there's a notch or not at the top. Uh, one subtle thing I got right there as well, Apple did change their font. Back in 2012, they were using Helvetica. I picked the wrong one to change to. They use a custom sans serif, but I did predict the UI was gonna change a bit. But what has changed is the mobile network speed. 5G now blankets the country in 100 megabit internet access, and the data caps are a thing of the past. Again, a fairly easy hit. 4G was just being rolled out in 2012, so taking a guess at 5G in 10 years wasn't that hard. And actually, it was a bit pessimistic. There are parts of the UK where you can get gigabit access on your phone now. Data caps are still a thing on some contracts, but as far as I know, they're not something most people have to think too much about. As you watch this, you've got to remember that in 2012, we were almost exactly halfway through the transition to smartphones. Only about 50% of people had moved from calls and texts only to what we'd call a modern phone today. Suddenly, half the population was carrying a camera all the time. Half the population could easily cheat on pub quizzes. Things were changing, and they were changing fast, but we weren't in the smartphone era. Social changes hadn't swept in, not yet. 2012 me is about to get to the fundamental idea of the talk, and it's based on one of the big ideas that was going around among technical people at the time, life logging, the quantified self, the plausible idea that we were going to store all our memories online soon. It was mainstream enough that Black Mirror's entire history of you had aired just a few months earlier, and now everyone was getting a computer with internet access in their pockets. 2012 was before Google Glass, before the first narrative clip, all of which came and went very quickly. It turns out that so far, people just don't seem to like the idea of remembering everything and storing that data forever with corporations. This talk felt like a warning, but I didn't know, no one knew if it was a warning that was going to be needed. Last year, Apple reused a trademark and introduced iLife. It's quite similar to your history on Microsoft Nokia phones or Droid Locker on Android. They're all descendants of the accountability systems that have been used for police officers and care workers for years now. So many misses in there. Apple have since switched to flat design. All the Android services have been rebranded as Google, and Microsoft Nokia phones. And the idea of private contractor body-worn cameras and that all sorts of people all over the public and private sectors would wear them every day as part of their work, it just hasn't come true. Completely wrong. With iLife, the phone is always recording audio and sending it and your location to a cloud server. The descendants of Siri then generate a transcript of it. If you're talking to someone else with iLife, it'll give you a text chat log. It's not perfect, but it's close enough. Big miss. Companies just haven't developed that. People, I think, don't want that. But back then, Siri was a few months old, Amazon's Alexa would come out a couple years later. I'm sure any of those companies could have developed that product. It's entirely possible these days. It's just that we went a different way. And if you have the new Apple headset, it's got a couple of cameras embedded in it, but you're always recording video when they're connected. That's uploaded, analyzed, and stabilized by the same systems. The cable incidentally still gets tangled in knots every time you put it in your bag. That's another big miss. Although to be fair to early me, I still think wireless headphones are a terrible idea. I can't understand why anyone uses them. Uh, they're expensive, they need recharging, the battery degrades over time, they need a carrying case, they're easy to lose. Bluetooth is still really dodgy 10 years later. I still use wired headsets. Now, in hindsight, wired camera buds would probably have drained too much battery too quickly, but I still think there's a path that could have got us there by now. Which brings us back to Jason Stewart. Jason is a member of Cheshire Boys, the site for his old alumni of his public school, runs on Disco, a fairly popular community framework that unfortunately has some fairly major security flaws. That's one of the biggest misses in this whole talk, and it's subtle. It took me a few times watching this to realize just how badly I'd got that wrong. A community for school alumni wouldn't be a website or forum these days. It wouldn't be independently hosted. There are still some places online like that, yes, but depending on demographics, that would almost certainly be a Facebook group or a WhatsApp thread or a Slack or Discord server. It would be on some centralized service, not a private web server with off-the-shelf code. That whole business model, that way of operating was dying at the time, and I had not noticed. I'm skipping over some of the talk here. Uh, basically, that Member of Parliament's password got leaked. His password is Stewart9. That's the same password he uses everywhere. And someone goes, hey, let's log into his iCloud. Why is any of that on desktop? 2012 was the start of the transition to mobile first, and I just didn't see it coming. All those screenshots should be vertical on a phone. I must have been imagining people coming home and checking this on their home computer instead of getting notifications and using an app on their device. Uh, a couple of years later, that would be obvious. Everything would start to be designed mobile first, but in 2012, after I'd spent more than a decade of writing websites on and for desktop computers, I just missed that entirely. That transition was starting, just starting, and I hadn't spotted it. First thing they see is Apple's handy is this you feature. Jason Stewart can be seen in a few frames of this walk by in Shoreditch. He wasn't recording, but his phone had his location and facial recognition to the rest, and it didn't take too much effort to find out what he was doing there. Few minutes later, this poison pen letter arrives in every single political editor and blogger's inbox in the country. The Sun eventually runs with it first after all the blogs have made it public knowledge. Blogging, blogs were still a big thing in the public consciousness in 2012, and I did not see their decline coming. I didn't see them being mostly replaced by Twitter. Should I have known? Was it obvious? It seems clear in hindsight that the bloggersphere's days were numbered, but I missed it. About one year after that talk, Google would switch off Google Reader, forever gaining a reputation as a company that shuts down old products instead of maintaining them. And it was all downhill from there. He decides he's going to go on the offense. He gets up in Parliament and says that our private lives should be private and that we must investigate these hackers. And he convinces the Met to investigate, which they do by filing a request with Apple for any life logs that mention Jason Stewart in the hours and minutes before the leak. And Apple agrees, because that argument got settled years ago. After Blackpool. You can tell something about what a culture is worried about, or maybe what a particular author is worried about, by reading their speculative fiction. I just finished, uh, The Brief History of the Dead by Kevin Brockmeier, and there are references in there to terrorist warning beacons that everyone's got used to and just ignores. And as I read that, I thought, ah, this is a post-9/11 book. And it is, it's from 2006. And this talk in 2012 still very much in the consciousness of people working online that we were one media-friendly terrorist attack away from losing what was left of our privacy rights. Your life log will get pulled and searched through by the police. It's not like you've got anything to hide, right? Maybe we still are. It's just that as far as I can tell from what I read, science fiction in the 2020s is more worried about democratic backsliding and misinformation and climate apocalypse. So, there's one question left. What about 10 years from now? What about 2032? I'm not immersed in web development and technology anymore. I don't code very often. I work on video now. So, what can I predict? Well, here's the guess. Not the future, just a future. I think short-form video is going to do to YouTube what Twitter did to blogs. People will still be making long-form video content. It will still get linked to and watched, but short-form is so much simpler that there will be so much more of it. A tweet takes 10 seconds to write, requires no proofreading or punctuation, and can be amplified to the world in minutes. A blog post takes minutes or hours to write, needs spell checking and formatting, and takes time to be discovered. It's not a perfect analogy, but I have a sinking feeling that short-form video is going to win just through sheer weight of numbers. The ability for almost anyone to compete on the same easy, low-effort, low-attention-span playing field. But there's no money in it. There's no money in Twitter, just the ability to promote other stuff. There is still money in long-form writing through commissions or fan subscriptions on Patreon or other platforms. In the same way, I don't think short-form video is going to kill YouTube. After all, YouTube didn't kill television, and television didn't kill radio, but there's a transition happening, just as there was 10 years ago. If you want a prediction for 2032, it's that the boom times for this platform, for YouTube, will be over. There's one problem with that, though. YouTube is centralized. Blogs couldn't disappear because everyone hosted their own in loads of different places, often for a monthly fee, but YouTube, well, we'll have to see if in 10 years time, Google decide to shut down this old product as well.","timeline":[{"t":0,"speech":"In 2012, I told a story about the future. I don't like looking back at things I've made in the past, but in the last couple of weeks I've had some emails saying, Tom, 10 years ago, you tried to predict 2022, or at least some of the technology and online world of 2022. You should look back and see if you were right.","visual":{"action":"Tom Scott stands centered in the frame, gesturing with his hands as he speaks directly to the camera. He looks thoughtful and engaged.","colors":{"dominant":"#5A6643","palette":["#5A6643","#A5A5A5","#2C2C2C","#7A8362","#848C72"]},"composition":{"angle":"eye-level","focus":"sharp","framing":"medium shot"},"mood":"informative","objects":[],"people":[{"age_range":"30s-40s","clothing":{"accessories":"none","bottom":"unseen","footwear":"unseen","top":"black puffer jacket over a light grey hoodie and a maroon t-shirt"},"face":"expressive, engaged, looking directly at the camera","hair":"short, light brown, slightly messy","hands":"gesturing to emphasize points","pose":"standing, facing forward","position":"center"}],"setting":{"architecture":"none visible","background":"overcast sky, trees, and tall dry grass with a distant industrial building and power lines","lighting":"overcast, natural, soft","location":"outdoor, rural/industrial edge"},"text_on_screen":[]}},{"t":8,"speech":"So, I've come back to the same place that I gave that talk. Uh, back in summer 2012, this was a warm, friendly, temporary festival site with a load of people on it.","visual":{"action":"The video cuts to a flashback of a younger Tom Scott giving a presentation. He stands to the right of a large black flat-screen TV, holding a microphone in his right hand and gesturing with his left. The TV displays a black background with a map of the UK and a timeline on the right side, showing '2013' and '2022' with 'April' highlighted in red.","colors":{"dominant":"#FFFFFF","palette":["#FFFFFF","#000000","#D3D3D3","#B0B0B0","#808080"]},"composition":{"angle":"eye-level","focus":"sharp","framing":"medium shot"},"mood":"informative, nostalgic","objects":[{"color":"black","name":"flat-screen TV","position":"left","state":"on, displaying graphics"},{"color":"silver and black","name":"microphone","position":"right hand","state":"held"},{"color":"black","name":"laptop","position":"bottom left, on a stand","state":"open"}],"people":[{"age_range":"20s-30s","clothing":{"accessories":"blue wristband on left wrist","bottom":"unseen","footwear":"unseen","top":"light grey t-shirt"},"face":"animated, smiling, looking towards the TV","hair":"medium-length, curly, light brown","hands":"right hand holding microphone, left hand gesturing","pose":"standing, slightly turned to the left","position":"right"}],"setting":{"architecture":"tent structure with white canvas walls and wooden poles","background":"white canvas tent wall","lighting":"bright, even, natural","location":"indoor, temporary event space"},"text_on_screen":[{"content":"2013","location":"right side of TV","style":"white text on black background"},{"content":"2022","location":"right side of TV","style":"white text on black background"},{"content":"April","location":"right side of TV, highlighted","style":"red bar"}]}},{"t":19,"speech":"And now it's a cold, rundown, deserted bit of scrubland next to a motorway, but it's the same place. I did originally try to film this without having looked back at the talk to get my actual genuine reaction. Uh, and it was a terrible video. I'm bad at improvising and I thought of a dozen more things I wanted to say right afterwards. So, now I've had some time to think. Let's go back 10 years. See what I got right, see what I got wrong, and see if I can predict 10 years from now.","visual":{"action":"The video cuts to a wide shot of a festival site with numerous colorful tents pitched on a dirt field surrounded by trees. The sky is bright and clear. Text overlays provide photo credit.","colors":{"dominant":"#8B8B7A","palette":["#8B8B7A","#A5A5A5","#5A6643","#7A8362","#B0B0B0"]},"composition":{"angle":"eye-level","focus":"sharp","framing":"wide shot"},"mood":"nostalgic, lively","objects":[{"color":"various","name":"tents","position":"midground","state":"pitched"},{"color":"green","name":"trees","position":"background","state":"leafy"}],"people":[],"setting":{"architecture":"tents","background":"trees, clear sky","lighting":"bright, natural","location":"outdoor festival site"},"text_on_screen":[{"content":"Photo: Andy Davidson / CC-BY 2.0","location":"top left","style":"white text"},{"content":"Details in description","location":"top left","style":"white text"}]}},{"t":22,"speech":"","visual":{"action":"The video zooms in on a yellow, circular, Pac-Man shaped kite or tent structure with a black opening, standing upright in the foreground of the festival site. Other tents are visible in the background.","colors":{"dominant":"#F0E68C","palette":["#F0E68C","#8B8B7A","#A5A5A5","#5A6643","#7A8362"]},"composition":{"angle":"eye-level","focus":"sharp","framing":"medium close-up"},"mood":"playful, nostalgic","objects":[{"color":"yellow and black","name":"Pac-Man shaped structure","position":"foreground left","state":"standing"},{"color":"various","name":"tents","position":"background","state":"pitched"}],"people":[],"setting":{"architecture":"tents","background":"trees, clear sky","lighting":"bright, natural","location":"outdoor festival site"},"text_on_screen":[{"content":"Photo: Andy Davidson / CC-BY 2.0","location":"top left","style":"white text"},{"content":"Details in description","location":"top left","style":"white text"}]}},{"t":24,"speech":"I've got a story for you. It's set in a future. Not necessarily the future. I'm not saying this is what will happen. I think that's the first time I ever used that phrase. It's a get out of jail free card, a way to hedge my bets and say, I'm probably gonna be wrong. I use it a lot when I write speculative fiction.","visual":{"action":"The video cuts back to the present-day Tom Scott, standing in the same outdoor location, speaking directly to the camera. He gestures with his hands to emphasize his points.","colors":{"dominant":"#5A6643","palette":["#5A6643","#A5A5A5","#2C2C2C","#7A8362","#848C72"]},"composition":{"angle":"eye-level","focus":"sharp","framing":"medium shot"},"mood":"reflective, slightly amused","objects":[],"people":[{"age_range":"30s-40s","clothing":{"accessories":"none","bottom":"unseen","footwear":"unseen","top":"black puffer jacket over a light grey hoodie and a maroon t-shirt"},"face":"expressive, engaged, looking directly at the camera","hair":"short, light brown, slightly messy","hands":"gesturing with open palms and pointed fingers","pose":"standing, facing forward","position":"center"}],"setting":{"architecture":"none visible","background":"overcast sky, trees, and tall dry grass with a distant industrial building and power lines","lighting":"overcast, natural, soft","location":"outdoor, rural/industrial edge"},"text_on_screen":[]}},{"t":26,"speech":"","visual":{"action":"The camera pans left across a green field with dry grass in the foreground. A lone bare tree stands in the middle ground, with a line of smaller trees and bushes behind it. Power lines stretch across the top of the frame, leading to a utility pole on the right. In the distance, a motorway with moving vehicles and a bridge are visible under a cloudy sky.","colors":{"dominant":"#7A8362","palette":["#7A8362","#A5A5A5","#5A6643","#B0B0B0","#2C2C2C"]},"composition":{"angle":"eye-level","focus":"sharp","framing":"wide shot"},"mood":"calm, slightly desolate","objects":[{"color":"brown","name":"utility pole","position":"right","state":"standing"},{"color":"grey","name":"power lines","position":"top","state":"stretched"},{"color":"green and brown","name":"trees and bushes","position":"midground","state":"bare and leafy"},{"color":"grey","name":"motorway bridge","position":"background right","state":"visible"}],"people":[],"setting":{"architecture":"motorway bridge","background":"trees, cloudy sky, motorway","lighting":"overcast, natural","location":"outdoor, field next to a motorway"},"text_on_screen":[]}},{"t":32,"speech":"All the political guesses there were completely wrong, but then when has anyone ever been able to predict politics? Also, the faces in this talk weren't originally blurred. I've used YouTube's tools to go back and blur them in the original as well. Uh, because there is a big difference between asking a friend, hey, can I borrow your headshot for this talk I'm just given to a few people, and can I show that to however many people will watch this new video? I've got a duty of care there.","visual":{"action":"Tom Scott stands centered in the frame, gesturing with his hands as he speaks directly to the camera. He looks thoughtful and engaged.","colors":{"dominant":"#5A6643","palette":["#5A6643","#A5A5A5","#2C2C2C","#7A8362","#848C72"]},"composition":{"angle":"eye-level","focus":"sharp","framing":"medium shot"},"mood":"informative","objects":[],"people":[{"age_range":"30s-40s","clothing":{"accessories":"none","bottom":"unseen","footwear":"unseen","top":"black puffer jacket over a light grey hoodie and a maroon t-shirt"},"face":"expressive, engaged, looking directly at the camera","hair":"short, light brown, slightly messy","hands":"gesturing to emphasize points","pose":"standing, facing forward","position":"center"}],"setting":{"architecture":"none visible","background":"overcast sky, trees, and tall dry grass with a distant industrial building and power lines","lighting":"overcast, natural, soft","location":"outdoor, rural/industrial edge"},"text_on_screen":[]}},{"t":47,"speech":"April 2022, 10 years time. First person we're gonna meet there is Jason Stewart. He's the MP for Tooting and Streatham. Uh, he is the Minister for Social Development. He's considered kind of a hot shot among his party after winning his seat in the 2020 general election in a very hard-fought contest.","visual":{"action":"The video cuts to a flashback of a younger Tom Scott giving a presentation. He stands to the right of a large black flat-screen TV, holding a microphone in his right hand and gesturing with his left. The TV displays a black background with a map of the UK and a timeline on the right side, showing '2013' and '2022' with 'April' highlighted in red. A blurred image of a man in a suit is shown on the left side of the TV, labeled 'Jason Stewart MP'.","colors":{"dominant":"#FFFFFF","palette":["#FFFFFF","#000000","#D3D3D3","#B0B0B0","#808080"]},"composition":{"angle":"eye-level","focus":"sharp","framing":"medium shot"},"mood":"informative, nostalgic","objects":[{"color":"black","name":"flat-screen TV","position":"left","state":"on, displaying graphics"},{"color":"silver and black","name":"microphone","position":"right hand","state":"held"},{"color":"black","name":"laptop","position":"bottom left, on a stand","state":"open"}],"people":[{"age_range":"20s-30s","clothing":{"accessories":"blue wristband on left wrist","bottom":"unseen","footwear":"unseen","top":"light grey t-shirt"},"face":"animated, smiling, looking towards the TV","hair":"medium-length, curly, light brown","hands":"right hand holding microphone, left hand gesturing","pose":"standing, slightly turned to the left","position":"right"}],"setting":{"architecture":"tent structure with white canvas walls and wooden poles","background":"white canvas tent wall","lighting":"bright, even, natural","location":"indoor, temporary event space"},"text_on_screen":[{"content":"Jason Stewart MP","location":"top left of TV","style":"white text on black background"},{"content":"2013","location":"right side of TV","style":"white text on black background"},{"content":"2022","location":"right side of TV","style":"white text on black background"},{"content":"April","location":"right side of TV, highlighted","style":"red bar"}]}},{"t":53,"speech":"All the political guesses there were completely wrong, but then when has anyone ever been able to predict politics? Also, the faces in this talk weren't originally blurred. I've used YouTube's tools to go back and blur them in the original as well. Uh, because there is a big difference between asking a friend, hey, can I borrow your headshot for this talk I'm just given to a few people, and can I show that to however many people will watch this new video? I've got a duty of care there.","visual":{"action":"Tom Scott stands centered in the frame, gesturing with his hands as he speaks directly to the camera. He looks thoughtful and engaged.","colors":{"dominant":"#5A6643","palette":["#5A6643","#A5A5A5","#2C2C2C","#7A8362","#848C72"]},"composition":{"angle":"eye-level","focus":"sharp","framing":"medium shot"},"mood":"informative","objects":[],"people":[{"age_range":"30s-40s","clothing":{"accessories":"none","bottom":"unseen","footwear":"unseen","top":"black puffer jacket over a light grey hoodie and a maroon t-shirt"},"face":"expressive, engaged, looking directly at the camera","hair":"short, light brown, slightly messy","hands":"gesturing to emphasize points","pose":"standing, facing forward","position":"center"}],"setting":{"architecture":"none visible","background":"overcast sky, trees, and tall dry grass with a distant industrial building and power lines","lighting":"overcast, natural, soft","location":"outdoor, rural/industrial edge"},"text_on_screen":[]}},{"t":102,"speech":"April 2022, 10 years time. First person we're gonna meet there is Jason Stewart. He's the MP for Tooting and Streatham. Uh, he is the Minister for Social Development. He's considered kind of a hot shot among his party after winning his seat in the 2020 general election in a very hard-fought contest.","visual":{"action":"The video zooms in on the large black flat-screen TV, showing a blurred image of a man in a suit labeled 'Jason Stewart MP' on the left side. Text details his political position, birth date, age, and marital status. A timeline on the right highlights 'April 2022'.","colors":{"dominant":"#000000","palette":["#000000","#FFFFFF","#D3D3D3","#B0B0B0","#808080"]},"composition":{"angle":"eye-level","focus":"sharp","framing":"close-up"},"mood":"informative","objects":[{"color":"black","name":"flat-screen TV","position":"center","state":"on, displaying graphics"}],"people":[],"setting":{"architecture":"none visible","background":"black","lighting":"artificial","location":"indoor"},"text_on_screen":[{"content":"Jason Stewart MP","location":"top left","style":"white text on black background"},{"content":"Member of Parliament for Tooting and Streatham","location":"below name","style":"white text"},{"content":"Minister for Social Development","location":"below MP role","style":"white text"},{"content":"Born September 12, 1986","location":"below Minister role","style":"white text"},{"content":"Age 35","location":"below birth date","style":"white text"},{"content":"Divorced, no children","location":"below age","style":"white text"},{"content":"2022","location":"right side","style":"white text on black background"},{"content":"April","location":"right side, highlighted","style":"red bar"}]}},{"t":111,"speech":"All the political guesses there were completely wrong, but then when has anyone ever been able to predict politics? Also, the faces in this talk weren't originally blurred. I've used YouTube's tools to go back and blur them in the original as well. Uh, because there is a big difference between asking a friend, hey, can I borrow your headshot for this talk I'm just given to a few people, and can I show that to however many people will watch this new video? I've got a duty of care there.","visual":{"action":"The video zooms in further on the TV screen, displaying a news article from 'Guardian.co.uk' with the headline 'Jason Stewart takes victory in close election race'. The article mentions his win in the 2020 general election for Tooting and Streatham. A small blurred image of three men in suits is included in the article. The timeline on the right still highlights 'April 2022'.","colors":{"dominant":"#000000","palette":["#000000","#FFFFFF","#D3D3D3","#B0B0B0","#808080"]},"composition":{"angle":"eye-level","focus":"sharp","framing":"extreme close-up"},"mood":"informative","objects":[{"color":"black","name":"flat-screen TV","position":"center","state":"on, displaying graphics"}],"people":[],"setting":{"architecture":"none visible","background":"black","lighting":"artificial","location":"indoor"},"text_on_screen":[{"content":"Wandsworth Guardian.co.uk","location":"top of article","style":"blue and white text"},{"content":"NEWS","location":"below masthead","style":"black text"},{"content":"Jason Stewart takes victory in close election race","location":"headline","style":"bold black text"},{"content":"03:02am Friday 8th May 2020 in News","location":"below headline","style":"small black text"},{"content":"The new constituency of Tooting and Streatham has its first Member of Parliament tonight, as Jason Stewart takes victory in one of the closest-fought battles in London's electoral history.","location":"article body","style":"black text"},{"content":"In his victory speech, Stewart promised \"a new era for South London\" and \"an end to the wasteful spending of the last government\".","location":"article body","style":"black text"},{"content":"Election counting continued into the small hours at the Streatham Hub, and while the threatened","location":"article body","style":"black text"},{"content":"2020","location":"right side","style":"white text on black background"},{"content":"May","location":"right side, highlighted","style":"red bar"}]}},{"t":116,"speech":"All the political guesses there were completely wrong, but then when has anyone ever been able to predict politics? Also, the faces in this talk weren't originally blurred. I've used YouTube's tools to go back and blur them in the original as well. Uh, because there is a big difference between asking a friend, hey, can I borrow your headshot for this talk I'm just given to a few people, and can I show that to however many people will watch this new video? I've got a duty of care there.","visual":{"action":"Tom Scott stands centered in the frame, gesturing with his hands as he speaks directly to the camera. He looks thoughtful and engaged.","colors":{"dominant":"#5A6643","palette":["#5A6643","#A5A5A5","#2C2C2C","#7A8362","#848C72"]},"composition":{"angle":"eye-level","focus":"sharp","framing":"medium shot"},"mood":"reflective, slightly amused","objects":[],"people":[{"age_range":"30s-40s","clothing":{"accessories":"none","bottom":"unseen","footwear":"unseen","top":"black puffer jacket over a light grey hoodie and a maroon t-shirt"},"face":"expressive, engaged, looking directly at the camera","hair":"short, light brown, slightly messy","hands":"gesturing with open palms and pointed fingers","pose":"standing, facing forward","position":"center"}],"setting":{"architecture":"none visible","background":"overcast sky, trees, and tall dry grass with a distant industrial building and power lines","lighting":"overcast, natural, soft","location":"outdoor, rural/industrial edge"},"text_on_screen":[]}},{"t":140,"speech":"This is the 2022 iPhone. Looks about the same, the laws of physics dictate you still need a battery brick.","visual":{"action":"The video cuts to a flashback of a younger Tom Scott giving a presentation. He stands to the right of a large black flat-screen TV, holding a microphone in his right hand and pointing at the TV with his left. The TV displays a black background with a map of the UK and a timeline on the right side, showing '2013' and '2022' with 'April' highlighted in red. A modern iPhone with a full-screen display of Earth is shown on the left side of the TV, labeled 'The modern iPhone'.","colors":{"dominant":"#FFFFFF","palette":["#FFFFFF","#000000","#D3D3D3","#B0B0B0","#808080"]},"composition":{"angle":"eye-level","focus":"sharp","framing":"medium shot"},"mood":"informative, nostalgic","objects":[{"color":"black","name":"flat-screen TV","position":"left","state":"on, displaying graphics"},{"color":"silver and black","name":"microphone","position":"right hand","state":"held"},{"color":"black","name":"laptop","position":"bottom left, on a stand","state":"open"}],"people":[{"age_range":"20s-30s","clothing":{"accessories":"blue wristband on left wrist","bottom":"unseen","footwear":"unseen","top":"light grey t-shirt"},"face":"animated, smiling, looking towards the TV","hair":"medium-length, curly, light brown","hands":"right hand holding microphone, left hand pointing at TV","pose":"standing, slightly turned to the left","position":"right"}],"setting":{"architecture":"tent structure with white canvas walls and wooden poles","background":"white canvas tent wall","lighting":"bright, even, natural","location":"indoor, temporary event space"},"text_on_screen":[{"content":"The modern iPhone","location":"top left of TV","style":"white text on black background"},{"content":"19:24 March 3, 2022","location":"on iPhone screen","style":"white text"},{"content":"2022","location":"right side of TV","style":"white text on black background"},{"content":"April","location":"right side of TV, highlighted","style":"red bar"}]}},{"t":144,"speech":"That's a hit. It's a very easy hit. The borders of phone screens are going to get smaller is not exactly a difficult prediction to make, and by sheer luck, I used a black background on the phone so you can't see if there's a notch or not at the top. Uh, one subtle thing I got right there as well, Apple did change their font. Back in 2012, they were using Helvetica. I picked the wrong one to change to. They use a custom sans serif, but I did predict the UI was gonna change a bit.","visual":{"action":"Tom Scott stands centered in the frame, gesturing with his hands as he speaks directly to the camera. He looks thoughtful and engaged.","colors":{"dominant":"#5A6643","palette":["#5A6643","#A5A5A5","#2C2C2C","#7A8362","#848C72"]},"composition":{"angle":"eye-level","focus":"sharp","framing":"medium shot"},"mood":"reflective, slightly amused","objects":[],"people":[{"age_range":"30s-40s","clothing":{"accessories":"none","bottom":"unseen","footwear":"unseen","top":"black puffer jacket over a light grey hoodie and a maroon t-shirt"},"face":"expressive, engaged, looking directly at the camera","hair":"short, light brown, slightly messy","hands":"gesturing with open palms and pointed fingers","pose":"standing, facing forward","position":"center"}],"setting":{"architecture":"none visible","background":"overcast sky, trees, and tall dry grass with a distant industrial building and power lines","lighting":"overcast, natural, soft","location":"outdoor, rural/industrial edge"},"text_on_screen":[]}},{"t":152,"speech":"But what has changed is the mobile network speed. 5G now blankets the country in 100 megabit internet access, and the data caps are a thing of the past.","visual":{"action":"The video cuts to a flashback of a younger Tom Scott giving a presentation. He stands to the right of a large black flat-screen TV, holding a microphone in his right hand and pointing at the TV with his left. The TV displays a black background with a map of the UK and a timeline on the right side, showing '2013' and '2022' with 'April' highlighted in red. A graph titled 'UK mobile network speed' is overlaid on the map, showing a red line indicating increasing speed over time from 2000 to 2020, with points for CSD, GPRS, 3G, LTE, and 5G.","colors":{"dominant":"#FFFFFF","palette":["#FFFFFF","#000000","#D3D3D3","#B0B0B0","#808080"]},"composition":{"angle":"eye-level","focus":"sharp","framing":"medium shot"},"mood":"informative, nostalgic","objects":[{"color":"black","name":"flat-screen TV","position":"left","state":"on, displaying graphics"},{"color":"silver and black","name":"microphone","position":"right hand","state":"held"},{"color":"black","name":"laptop","position":"bottom left, on a stand","state":"open"}],"people":[{"age_range":"20s-30s","clothing":{"accessories":"blue wristband on left wrist","bottom":"unseen","footwear":"unseen","top":"light grey t-shirt"},"face":"animated, smiling, looking towards the TV","hair":"medium-length, curly, light brown","hands":"right hand holding microphone, left hand pointing at TV","pose":"standing, slightly turned to the left","position":"right"}],"setting":{"architecture":"tent structure with white canvas walls and wooden poles","background":"white canvas tent wall","lighting":"bright, even, natural","location":"indoor, temporary event space"},"text_on_screen":[{"content":"UK mobile network speed","location":"top left of TV","style":"white text on black background"},{"content":"2022","location":"right side of TV","style":"white text on black background"},{"content":"April","location":"right side of TV, highlighted","style":"red bar"}]}},{"t":204,"speech":"Again, a fairly easy hit. 4G was just being rolled out in 2012, so taking a guess at 5G in 10 years wasn't that hard. And actually, it was a bit pessimistic. There are parts of the UK where you can get gigabit access on your phone now. Data caps are still a thing on some contracts, but as far as I know, they're not something most people have to think too much about.","visual":{"action":"Tom Scott stands centered in the frame, gesturing with his hands as he speaks directly to the camera. He looks thoughtful and engaged.","colors":{"dominant":"#5A6643","palette":["#5A6643","#A5A5A5","#2C2C2C","#7A8362","#848C72"]},"composition":{"angle":"eye-level","focus":"sharp","framing":"medium shot"},"mood":"reflective, slightly amused","objects":[],"people":[{"age_range":"30s-40s","clothing":{"accessories":"none","bottom":"unseen","footwear":"unseen","top":"black puffer jacket over a light grey hoodie and a maroon t-shirt"},"face":"expressive, engaged, looking directly at the camera","hair":"short, light brown, slightly messy","hands":"gesturing with open palms and pointed fingers","pose":"standing, facing forward","position":"center"}],"setting":{"architecture":"none visible","background":"overcast sky, trees, and tall dry grass with a distant industrial building and power lines","lighting":"overcast, natural, soft","location":"outdoor, rural/industrial edge"},"text_on_screen":[]}},{"t":232,"speech":"As you watch this, you've got to remember that in 2012, we were almost exactly halfway through the transition to smartphones. Only about 50% of people had moved from calls and texts only to what we'd call a modern phone today. Suddenly, half the population was carrying a camera all the time. Half the population could easily cheat on pub quizzes. Things were changing, and they were changing fast, but we weren't in the smartphone era. Social changes hadn't swept in, not yet. 2012 me is about to get to the fundamental idea of the talk, and it's based on one of the big ideas that was going around among technical people at the time, life logging, the quantified self, the plausible idea that we were going to store all our memories online soon.","visual":{"action":"Tom Scott stands centered in the frame, gesturing with his hands as he speaks directly to the camera. He looks thoughtful and engaged.","colors":{"dominant":"#5A6643","palette":["#5A6643","#A5A5A5","#2C2C2C","#7A8362","#848C72"]},"composition":{"angle":"eye-level","focus":"sharp","framing":"medium shot"},"mood":"reflective, informative","objects":[],"people":[{"age_range":"30s-40s","clothing":{"accessories":"none","bottom":"unseen","footwear":"unseen","top":"black puffer jacket over a light grey hoodie and a maroon t-shirt"},"face":"expressive, engaged, looking directly at the camera","hair":"short, light brown, slightly messy","hands":"gesturing with open palms and pointed fingers","pose":"standing, facing forward","position":"center"}],"setting":{"architecture":"none visible","background":"overcast sky, trees, and tall dry grass with a distant industrial building and power lines","lighting":"overcast, natural, soft","location":"outdoor, rural/industrial edge"},"text_on_screen":[]}},{"t":312,"speech":"It was mainstream enough that Black Mirror's entire history of you had aired just a few months earlier, and now everyone was getting a computer with internet access in their pockets. 2012 was before Google Glass, before the first narrative clip, all of which came and went very quickly. It turns out that so far, people just don't seem to like the idea of remembering everything and storing that data forever with corporations. This talk felt like a warning, but I didn't know, no one knew if it was a warning that was going to be needed.","visual":{"action":"Tom Scott stands centered in the frame, gesturing with his hands as he speaks directly to the camera. He looks thoughtful and engaged.","colors":{"dominant":"#5A6643","palette":["#5A6643","#A5A5A5","#2C2C2C","#7A8362","#848C72"]},"composition":{"angle":"eye-level","focus":"sharp","framing":"medium shot"},"mood":"reflective, informative","objects":[],"people":[{"age_range":"30s-40s","clothing":{"accessories":"none","bottom":"unseen","footwear":"unseen","top":"black puffer jacket over a light grey hoodie and a maroon t-shirt"},"face":"expressive, engaged, looking directly at the camera","hair":"short, light brown, slightly messy","hands":"gesturing with open palms and pointed fingers","pose":"standing, facing forward","position":"center"}],"setting":{"architecture":"none visible","background":"overcast sky, trees, and tall dry grass with a distant industrial building and power lines","lighting":"overcast, natural, soft","location":"outdoor, rural/industrial edge"},"text_on_screen":[]}},{"t":339,"speech":"Last year, Apple reused a trademark and introduced iLife. It's quite similar to your history on Microsoft Nokia phones or Droid Locker on Android. They're all descendants of the accountability systems that have been used for police officers and care workers for years now.","visual":{"action":"The video cuts to a flashback of a younger Tom Scott giving a presentation. He stands to the right of a large black flat-screen TV, holding a microphone in his right hand and gesturing with his left. The TV displays a black background with a map of the UK and a timeline on the right side, showing '2013' and '2022' with 'April' highlighted in red. An icon of an hourglass with the text 'iLife' is shown on the left side of the TV.","colors":{"dominant":"#FFFFFF","palette":["#FFFFFF","#000000","#D3D3D3","#B0B0B0","#808080"]},"composition":{"angle":"eye-level","focus":"sharp","framing":"medium shot"},"mood":"informative, nostalgic","objects":[{"color":"black","name":"flat-screen TV","position":"left","state":"on, displaying graphics"},{"color":"silver and black","name":"microphone","position":"right hand","state":"held"},{"color":"black","name":"laptop","position":"bottom left, on a stand","state":"open"}],"people":[{"age_range":"20s-30s","clothing":{"accessories":"blue wristband on left wrist","bottom":"unseen","footwear":"unseen","top":"light grey t-shirt"},"face":"animated, smiling, looking towards the TV","hair":"medium-length, curly, light brown","hands":"right hand holding microphone, left hand gesturing","pose":"standing, slightly turned to the left","position":"right"}],"setting":{"architecture":"tent structure with white canvas walls and wooden poles","background":"white canvas tent wall","lighting":"bright, even, natural","location":"indoor, temporary event space"},"text_on_screen":[{"content":"iLife","location":"bottom left of TV","style":"white text below hourglass icon"},{"content":"2021","location":"right side of TV","style":"white text on black background"},{"content":"March","location":"right side of TV, highlighted","style":"red bar"}]}},{"t":346,"speech":"It's quite similar to your history on Microsoft Nokia phones or Droid Locker on Android. They're all descendants of the accountability systems that have been used for police officers and care workers for years now.","visual":{"action":"The video cuts to a flashback of a younger Tom Scott giving a presentation. He stands to the right of a large black flat-screen TV, holding a microphone in his right hand and gesturing with his left. The TV displays a black background with a map of the UK and a timeline on the right side, showing '2013' and '2022' with 'April' highlighted in red. An icon of an hourglass with the text 'iLife' is shown on the left side of the TV. An Android logo and the text 'your history' and 'Droid Locker' are also shown.","colors":{"dominant":"#FFFFFF","palette":["#FFFFFF","#000000","#D3D3D3","#B0B0B0","#808080"]},"composition":{"angle":"eye-level","focus":"sharp","framing":"medium shot"},"mood":"informative, nostalgic","objects":[{"color":"black","name":"flat-screen TV","position":"left","state":"on, displaying graphics"},{"color":"silver and black","name":"microphone","position":"right hand","state":"held"},{"color":"black","name":"laptop","position":"bottom left, on a stand","state":"open"}],"people":[{"age_range":"20s-30s","clothing":{"accessories":"blue wristband on left wrist","bottom":"unseen","footwear":"unseen","top":"light grey t-shirt"},"face":"animated, smiling, looking towards the TV","hair":"medium-length, curly, light brown","hands":"right hand holding microphone, left hand gesturing","pose":"standing, slightly turned to the left","position":"right"}],"setting":{"architecture":"tent structure with white canvas walls and wooden poles","background":"white canvas tent wall","lighting":"bright, even, natural","location":"indoor, temporary event space"},"text_on_screen":[{"content":"iLife","location":"bottom left of TV","style":"white text below hourglass icon"},{"content":"your history","location":"center of TV","style":"white text"},{"content":"Droid Locker","location":"bottom center of TV","style":"white text"},{"content":"2021","location":"right side of TV","style":"white text on black background"},{"content":"March","location":"right side of TV, highlighted","style":"red bar"}]}},{"t":354,"speech":"So many misses in there. Apple have since switched to flat design. All the Android services have been rebranded as Google, and Microsoft Nokia phones. And the idea of private contractor body-worn cameras and that all sorts of people all over the public and private sectors would wear them every day as part of their work, it just hasn't come true. Completely wrong.","visual":{"action":"Tom Scott stands centered in the frame, gesturing with his hands as he speaks directly to the camera. 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The descendants of Siri then generate a transcript of it. If you're talking to someone else with iLife, it'll give you a text chat log. It's not perfect, but it's close enough.","visual":{"action":"The video cuts to a flashback of a younger Tom Scott giving a presentation. He stands to the right of a large black flat-screen TV, holding a microphone in his right hand and gesturing with his left. The TV displays a black background with a map of the UK and a timeline on the right side, showing '2013' and '2022' with 'April' highlighted in red. A white paper-like graphic with text 'March 13, 2021 With iLife the phone is always recording audio and sending it and your location to a cloud server' is shown on the left side of the TV. A waveform graphic is overlaid on the text.","colors":{"dominant":"#FFFFFF","palette":["#FFFFFF","#000000","#D3D3D3","#B0B0B0","#808080"]},"composition":{"angle":"eye-level","focus":"sharp","framing":"medium shot"},"mood":"informative, nostalgic","objects":[{"color":"black","name":"flat-screen TV","position":"left","state":"on, displaying graphics"},{"color":"silver and black","name":"microphone","position":"right hand","state":"held"},{"color":"black","name":"laptop","position":"bottom left, on a stand","state":"open"}],"people":[{"age_range":"20s-30s","clothing":{"accessories":"blue wristband on left wrist","bottom":"unseen","footwear":"unseen","top":"light grey t-shirt"},"face":"animated, smiling, looking towards the TV","hair":"medium-length, curly, light brown","hands":"right hand holding microphone, left hand gesturing","pose":"standing, slightly turned to the left","position":"right"}],"setting":{"architecture":"tent structure with white canvas walls and wooden poles","background":"white canvas tent wall","lighting":"bright, even, natural","location":"indoor, temporary event space"},"text_on_screen":[{"content":"March 13, 2021","location":"top of paper graphic","style":"black text"},{"content":"With iLife the phone is always recording audio and sending it and your location to a cloud server","location":"body of paper graphic","style":"black text"},{"content":"2021","location":"right side of TV","style":"white text on black background"},{"content":"March","location":"right side of TV, highlighted","style":"red bar"}]}},{"t":427,"speech":"Big miss. Companies just haven't developed that. People, I think, don't want that. But back then, Siri was a few months old, Amazon's Alexa would come out a couple years later. I'm sure any of those companies could have developed that product. It's entirely possible these days. It's just that we went a different way.","visual":{"action":"Tom Scott stands centered in the frame, gesturing with his hands as he speaks directly to the camera. He looks thoughtful and engaged.","colors":{"dominant":"#5A6643","palette":["#5A6643","#A5A5A5","#2C2C2C","#7A8362","#848C72"]},"composition":{"angle":"eye-level","focus":"sharp","framing":"medium shot"},"mood":"reflective, informative","objects":[],"people":[{"age_range":"30s-40s","clothing":{"accessories":"none","bottom":"unseen","footwear":"unseen","top":"black puffer jacket over a light grey hoodie and a maroon t-shirt"},"face":"expressive, engaged, looking directly at the camera","hair":"short, light brown, slightly messy","hands":"gesturing with open palms and pointed fingers","pose":"standing, facing forward","position":"center"}],"setting":{"architecture":"none visible","background":"overcast sky, trees, and tall dry grass with a distant industrial building and power lines","lighting":"overcast, natural, soft","location":"outdoor, rural/industrial edge"},"text_on_screen":[]}},{"t":444,"speech":"And if you have the new Apple headset, it's got a couple of cameras embedded in it, but you're always recording video when they're connected. That's uploaded, analyzed, and stabilized by the same systems. The cable incidentally still gets tangled in knots every time you put it in your bag.","visual":{"action":"The video cuts to a flashback of a younger Tom Scott giving a presentation. He stands to the right of a large black flat-screen TV, holding a microphone in his right hand and gesturing with his left. The TV displays a black background with a map of the UK and a timeline on the right side, showing '2013' and '2022' with 'April' highlighted in red. A white headphone with a small camera lens is shown on the left side of the TV, with text detailing its video capabilities.","colors":{"dominant":"#FFFFFF","palette":["#FFFFFF","#000000","#D3D3D3","#B0B0B0","#808080"]},"composition":{"angle":"eye-level","focus":"sharp","framing":"medium shot"},"mood":"informative, nostalgic","objects":[{"color":"black","name":"flat-screen TV","position":"left","state":"on, displaying graphics"},{"color":"silver and black","name":"microphone","position":"right hand","state":"held"},{"color":"black","name":"laptop","position":"bottom left, on a stand","state":"open"}],"people":[{"age_range":"20s-30s","clothing":{"accessories":"blue wristband on left wrist","bottom":"unseen","footwear":"unseen","top":"light grey t-shirt"},"face":"animated, smiling, looking towards the TV","hair":"medium-length, curly, light brown","hands":"right hand holding microphone, left hand gesturing","pose":"standing, slightly turned to the left","position":"right"}],"setting":{"architecture":"tent structure with white canvas walls and wooden poles","background":"white canvas tent wall","lighting":"bright, even, natural","location":"indoor, temporary event space"},"text_on_screen":[{"content":"1280x720","location":"below headphone image","style":"white text"},{"content":"30fps","location":"below resolution","style":"white text"},{"content":"Low light response","location":"below fps","style":"white text"},{"content":"Focus from 20cm to infinity","location":"below low light response","style":"white text"},{"content":"2021","location":"right side of TV","style":"white text on black background"},{"content":"March","location":"right side of TV, highlighted","style":"red bar"}]}},{"t":457,"speech":"That's another big miss. Although to be fair to early me, I still think wireless headphones are a terrible idea. I can't understand why anyone uses them. Uh, they're expensive, they need recharging, the battery degrades over time, they need a carrying case, they're easy to lose. Bluetooth is still really dodgy 10 years later. I still use wired headsets. Now, in hindsight, wired camera buds would probably have drained too much battery too quickly, but I still think there's a path that could have got us there by now.","visual":{"action":"Tom Scott stands centered in the frame, gesturing with his hands as he speaks directly to the camera. 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Jason is a member of Cheshire Boys, the site for his old alumni of his public school, runs on Disco, a fairly popular community framework that unfortunately has some fairly major security flaws.","visual":{"action":"The video cuts to a flashback of a younger Tom Scott giving a presentation. He stands to the right of a large black flat-screen TV, holding a microphone in his right hand and gesturing with his left. The TV displays a black background with a map of the UK and a timeline on the right side, showing '2013' and '2022' with 'April' highlighted in red. A screenshot of a website with the title 'cheshire boys' is shown on the left side of the TV.","colors":{"dominant":"#FFFFFF","palette":["#FFFFFF","#000000","#D3D3D3","#B0B0B0","#808080"]},"composition":{"angle":"eye-level","focus":"sharp","framing":"medium shot"},"mood":"informative, nostalgic","objects":[{"color":"black","name":"flat-screen TV","position":"left","state":"on, displaying graphics"},{"color":"silver and black","name":"microphone","position":"right hand","state":"held"},{"color":"black","name":"laptop","position":"bottom left, on a stand","state":"open"}],"people":[{"age_range":"20s-30s","clothing":{"accessories":"blue wristband on left wrist","bottom":"unseen","footwear":"unseen","top":"light grey t-shirt"},"face":"animated, smiling, looking towards the TV","hair":"medium-length, curly, light brown","hands":"right hand holding microphone, left hand gesturing","pose":"standing, slightly turned to the left","position":"right"}],"setting":{"architecture":"tent structure with white canvas walls and wooden poles","background":"white canvas tent wall","lighting":"bright, even, natural","location":"indoor, temporary event space"},"text_on_screen":[{"content":"cheshire boys","location":"top left of TV","style":"green text on white background"},{"content":"2022","location":"right side of TV","style":"white text on black background"},{"content":"April","location":"right side of TV, highlighted","style":"red bar"}]}},{"t":533,"speech":"That's one of the biggest misses in this whole talk, and it's subtle. It took me a few times watching this to realize just how badly I'd got that wrong. A community for school alumni wouldn't be a website or forum these days. It wouldn't be independently hosted. There are still some places online like that, yes, but depending on demographics, that would almost certainly be a Facebook group or a WhatsApp thread or a Slack or Discord server. It would be on some centralized service, not a private web server with off-the-shelf code. That whole business model, that way of operating was dying at the time, and I had not noticed.","visual":{"action":"Tom Scott stands centered in the frame, gesturing with his hands as he speaks directly to the camera. 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Uh, basically, that Member of Parliament's password got leaked.","visual":{"action":"The video cuts to a flashback of a younger Tom Scott giving a presentation. He stands to the right of a large black flat-screen TV, holding a microphone in his right hand and gesturing with his left. The TV displays a black background with a map of the UK and a timeline on the right side, showing '2013' and '2022' with 'April' highlighted in red. A screenshot of a news article about a hacker being sentenced to twelve years in jail for using a credit card belonging to President Vladimir Putin is shown on the left side of the TV.","colors":{"dominant":"#FFFFFF","palette":["#FFFFFF","#000000","#D3D3D3","#B0B0B0","#808080"]},"composition":{"angle":"eye-level","focus":"sharp","framing":"medium shot"},"mood":"informative, nostalgic","objects":[{"color":"black","name":"flat-screen TV","position":"left","state":"on, displaying graphics"},{"color":"silver and black","name":"microphone","position":"right hand","state":"held"},{"color":"black","name":"laptop","position":"bottom left, on a stand","state":"open"}],"people":[{"age_range":"20s-30s","clothing":{"accessories":"blue wristband on left wrist","bottom":"unseen","footwear":"unseen","top":"light grey t-shirt"},"face":"animated, smiling, looking towards the TV","hair":"medium-length, curly, light brown","hands":"right hand holding microphone, left hand gesturing","pose":"standing, slightly turned to the left","position":"right"}],"setting":{"architecture":"tent structure with white canvas walls and wooden poles","background":"white canvas tent wall","lighting":"bright, even, natural","location":"indoor, temporary event space"},"text_on_screen":[{"content":"Putin porn hacker sentenced to twelve years in jail","location":"top of article","style":"black text"},{"content":"2022","location":"right side of TV","style":"white text on black background"},{"content":"April","location":"right side of TV, highlighted","style":"red bar"}]}},{"t":610,"speech":"His password is Stewart9. That's the same password he uses everywhere. And someone goes, hey, let's log into his iCloud.","visual":{"action":"The video cuts to a flashback of a younger Tom Scott giving a presentation. He stands to the right of a large black flat-screen TV, holding a microphone in his right hand and gesturing with his left. The TV displays a black background with a map of the UK and a timeline on the right side, showing '2013' and '2022' with 'April' highlighted in red. A blurred image of a man in a suit is shown on the left side of the TV, with text 'stewart9' and 'tootingjason@gmail.com' highlighted.","colors":{"dominant":"#FFFFFF","palette":["#FFFFFF","#000000","#D3D3D3","#B0B0B0","#808080"]},"composition":{"angle":"eye-level","focus":"sharp","framing":"medium shot"},"mood":"informative, nostalgic","objects":[{"color":"black","name":"flat-screen TV","position":"left","state":"on, displaying graphics"},{"color":"silver and black","name":"microphone","position":"right hand","state":"held"},{"color":"black","name":"laptop","position":"bottom left, on a stand","state":"open"}],"people":[{"age_range":"20s-30s","clothing":{"accessories":"blue wristband on left wrist","bottom":"unseen","footwear":"unseen","top":"light grey t-shirt"},"face":"animated, smiling, looking towards the TV","hair":"medium-length, curly, light brown","hands":"right hand holding microphone, left hand gesturing","pose":"standing, slightly turned to the left","position":"right"}],"setting":{"architecture":"tent structure with white canvas walls and wooden poles","background":"white canvas tent wall","lighting":"bright, even, natural","location":"indoor, temporary event space"},"text_on_screen":[{"content":"stewart9","location":"left side of TV, highlighted","style":"red bar"},{"content":"tootingjason@gmail.com","location":"left side of TV, highlighted","style":"red bar"},{"content":"2022","location":"right side of TV","style":"white text on black background"},{"content":"April","location":"right side of TV, highlighted","style":"red bar"}]}},{"t":615,"speech":"Why is any of that on desktop? 2012 was the start of the transition to mobile first, and I just didn't see it coming. All those screenshots should be vertical on a phone. I must have been imagining people coming home and checking this on their home computer instead of getting notifications and using an app on their device. Uh, a couple of years later, that would be obvious. Everything would start to be designed mobile first, but in 2012, after I'd spent more than a decade of writing websites on and for desktop computers, I just missed that entirely. That transition was starting, just starting, and I hadn't spotted it.","visual":{"action":"Tom Scott stands centered in the frame, gesturing with his hands as he speaks directly to the camera. He looks thoughtful and engaged.","colors":{"dominant":"#5A6643","palette":["#5A6643","#A5A5A5","#2C2C2C","#7A8362","#848C72"]},"composition":{"angle":"eye-level","focus":"sharp","framing":"medium shot"},"mood":"reflective, informative","objects":[],"people":[{"age_range":"30s-40s","clothing":{"accessories":"none","bottom":"unseen","footwear":"unseen","top":"black puffer jacket over a light grey hoodie and a maroon t-shirt"},"face":"expressive, engaged, looking directly at the camera","hair":"short, light brown, slightly messy","hands":"gesturing with open palms and pointed fingers","pose":"standing, facing forward","position":"center"}],"setting":{"architecture":"none visible","background":"overcast sky, trees, and tall dry grass with a distant industrial building and power lines","lighting":"overcast, natural, soft","location":"outdoor, rural/industrial edge"},"text_on_screen":[]}},{"t":649,"speech":"First thing they see is Apple's handy is this you feature. Jason Stewart can be seen in a few frames of this walk by in Shoreditch. He wasn't recording, but his phone had his location and facial recognition to the rest, and it didn't take too much effort to find out what he was doing there.","visual":{"action":"The video cuts to a flashback of a younger Tom Scott giving a presentation. He stands to the right of a large black flat-screen TV, holding a microphone in his right hand and gesturing with his left. The TV displays a black background with a map of the UK and a timeline on the right side, showing '2013' and '2022' with 'April' highlighted in red. A screenshot of a website with the title 'Welcome to iLife, Jason!' and a blurred image of a man is shown on the left side of the TV.","colors":{"dominant":"#FFFFFF","palette":["#FFFFFF","#000000","#D3D3D3","#B0B0B0","#808080"]},"composition":{"angle":"eye-level","focus":"sharp","framing":"medium shot"},"mood":"informative, nostalgic","objects":[{"color":"black","name":"flat-screen TV","position":"left","state":"on, displaying graphics"},{"color":"silver and black","name":"microphone","position":"right hand","state":"held"},{"color":"black","name":"laptop","position":"bottom left, on a stand","state":"open"}],"people":[{"age_range":"20s-30s","clothing":{"accessories":"blue wristband on left wrist","bottom":"unseen","footwear":"unseen","top":"light grey t-shirt"},"face":"animated, smiling, looking towards the TV","hair":"medium-length, curly, light brown","hands":"right hand holding microphone, left hand gesturing","pose":"standing, slightly turned to the left","position":"right"}],"setting":{"architecture":"tent structure with white canvas walls and wooden poles","background":"white canvas tent wall","lighting":"bright, even, natural","location":"indoor, temporary event space"},"text_on_screen":[{"content":"Welcome to iLife, Jason!","location":"top of website screenshot","style":"black text"},{"content":"Is This You?","location":"below welcome message","style":"bold black text"},{"content":"2022","location":"right side of TV","style":"white text on black background"},{"content":"April","location":"right side of TV, highlighted","style":"red bar"}]}},{"t":656,"speech":"Few minutes later, this poison pen letter arrives in every single political editor and blogger's inbox in the country. The Sun eventually runs with it first after all the blogs have made it public knowledge.","visual":{"action":"The video cuts to a flashback of a younger Tom Scott giving a presentation. He stands to the right of a large black flat-screen TV, holding a microphone in his right hand and gesturing with his left. The TV displays a black background with a map of the UK and a timeline on the right side, showing '2013' and '2022' with 'April' highlighted in red. A screenshot of an email with the subject 'Jason Stewart MP's little indiscretion' is shown on the left side of the TV.","colors":{"dominant":"#FFFFFF","palette":["#FFFFFF","#000000","#D3D3D3","#B0B0B0","#808080"]},"composition":{"angle":"eye-level","focus":"sharp","framing":"medium shot"},"mood":"informative, nostalgic","objects":[{"color":"black","name":"flat-screen TV","position":"left","state":"on, displaying graphics"},{"color":"silver and black","name":"microphone","position":"right hand","state":"held"},{"color":"black","name":"laptop","position":"bottom left, on a stand","state":"open"}],"people":[{"age_range":"20s-30s","clothing":{"accessories":"blue wristband on left wrist","bottom":"unseen","footwear":"unseen","top":"light grey t-shirt"},"face":"animated, smiling, looking towards the TV","hair":"medium-length, curly, light brown","hands":"right hand holding microphone, left hand gesturing","pose":"standing, slightly turned to the left","position":"right"}],"setting":{"architecture":"tent structure with white canvas walls and wooden poles","background":"white canvas tent wall","lighting":"bright, even, natural","location":"indoor, temporary event space"},"text_on_screen":[{"content":"Jason Stewart MP's little indiscretion","location":"email subject line","style":"black text"},{"content":"Looks like our local MP has been having some fun times. I found this in his iLife account. I'm posting it everywhere. I know you don't want to report on hacked stuff... but believe me, this is going public in a BIG WAY","location":"email body","style":"black text"},{"content":"Evidence attached","location":"below email body","style":"black text"},{"content":"2022","location":"right side of TV","style":"white text on black background"},{"content":"April","location":"right side of TV, highlighted","style":"red bar"}]}},{"t":690,"speech":"Blogging, blogs were still a big thing in the public consciousness in 2012, and I did not see their decline coming. I didn't see them being mostly replaced by Twitter. Should I have known? Was it obvious? It seems clear in hindsight that the bloggersphere's days were numbered, but I missed it. About one year after that talk, Google would switch off Google Reader, forever gaining a reputation as a company that shuts down old products instead of maintaining them. And it was all downhill from there.","visual":{"action":"Tom Scott stands centered in the frame, gesturing with his hands as he speaks directly to the camera. He looks thoughtful and engaged.","colors":{"dominant":"#5A6643","palette":["#5A6643","#A5A5A5","#2C2C2C","#7A8362","#848C72"]},"composition":{"angle":"eye-level","focus":"sharp","framing":"medium shot"},"mood":"reflective, informative","objects":[],"people":[{"age_range":"30s-40s","clothing":{"accessories":"none","bottom":"unseen","footwear":"unseen","top":"black puffer jacket over a light grey hoodie and a maroon t-shirt"},"face":"expressive, engaged, looking directly at the camera","hair":"short, light brown, slightly messy","hands":"gesturing with open palms and pointed fingers","pose":"standing, facing forward","position":"center"}],"setting":{"architecture":"none visible","background":"overcast sky, trees, and tall dry grass with a distant industrial building and power lines","lighting":"overcast, natural, soft","location":"outdoor, rural/industrial edge"},"text_on_screen":[]}},{"t":739,"speech":"He decides he's going to go on the offense. He gets up in Parliament and says that our private lives should be private and that we must investigate these hackers. And he convinces the Met to investigate, which they do by filing a request with Apple for any life logs that mention Jason Stewart in the hours and minutes before the leak. And Apple agrees, because that argument got settled years ago. After Blackpool.","visual":{"action":"The video cuts to a flashback of a younger Tom Scott giving a presentation. He stands to the right of a large black flat-screen TV, holding a microphone in his right hand and gesturing with his left. The TV displays a black background with a map of the UK and a timeline on the right side, showing '2013' and '2022' with 'April' highlighted in red. A screenshot of a Metropolitan Police website with the headline 'A request has been filed for records kept by Apple about recent hacking incidents' is shown on the left side of the TV.","colors":{"dominant":"#FFFFFF","palette":["#FFFFFF","#000000","#D3D3D3","#B0B0B0","#808080"]},"composition":{"angle":"eye-level","focus":"sharp","framing":"medium shot"},"mood":"informative, nostalgic","objects":[{"color":"black","name":"flat-screen TV","position":"left","state":"on, displaying graphics"},{"color":"silver and black","name":"microphone","position":"right hand","state":"held"},{"color":"black","name":"laptop","position":"bottom left, on a stand","state":"open"}],"people":[{"age_range":"20s-30s","clothing":{"accessories":"blue wristband on left wrist","bottom":"unseen","footwear":"unseen","top":"light grey t-shirt"},"face":"animated, smiling, looking towards the TV","hair":"medium-length, curly, light brown","hands":"right hand holding microphone, left hand gesturing","pose":"standing, slightly turned to the left","position":"right"}],"setting":{"architecture":"tent structure with white canvas walls and wooden poles","background":"white canvas tent wall","lighting":"bright, even, natural","location":"indoor, temporary event space"},"text_on_screen":[{"content":"METROPOLITAN POLICE","location":"top left of website screenshot","style":"blue text"},{"content":"TOTAL POLICING","location":"top right of website screenshot","style":"blue text"},{"content":"A request has been filed for records kept by Apple about recent hacking incidents","location":"headline of website screenshot","style":"black text"},{"content":"2022","location":"right side of TV","style":"white text on black background"},{"content":"April","location":"right side of TV, highlighted","style":"red bar"}]}},{"t":801,"speech":"You can tell something about what a culture is worried about, or maybe what a particular author is worried about, by reading their speculative fiction. I just finished, uh, The Brief History of the Dead by Kevin Brockmeier, and there are references in there to terrorist warning beacons that everyone's got used to and just ignores. And as I read that, I thought, ah, this is a post-9/11 book. And it is, it's from 2006. And this talk in 2012 still very much in the consciousness of people working online that we were one media-friendly terrorist attack away from losing what was left of our privacy rights.","visual":{"action":"Tom Scott stands centered in the frame, gesturing with his hands as he speaks directly to the camera. He looks thoughtful and engaged.","colors":{"dominant":"#5A6643","palette":["#5A6643","#A5A5A5","#2C2C2C","#7A8362","#848C72"]},"composition":{"angle":"eye-level","focus":"sharp","framing":"medium shot"},"mood":"reflective, informative","objects":[],"people":[{"age_range":"30s-40s","clothing":{"accessories":"none","bottom":"unseen","footwear":"unseen","top":"black puffer jacket over a light grey hoodie and a maroon t-shirt"},"face":"expressive, engaged, looking directly at the camera","hair":"short, light brown, slightly messy","hands":"gesturing with open palms and pointed fingers","pose":"standing, facing forward","position":"center"}],"setting":{"architecture":"none visible","background":"overcast sky, trees, and tall dry grass with a distant industrial building and power lines","lighting":"overcast, natural, soft","location":"outdoor, rural/industrial edge"},"text_on_screen":[]}},{"t":832,"speech":"Your life log will get pulled and searched through by the police. It's not like you've got anything to hide, right?","visual":{"action":"The video cuts to a flashback of a younger Tom Scott giving a presentation. He stands to the right of a large black flat-screen TV, holding a microphone in his right hand and gesturing with his left. The TV displays a black background with a map of the UK and a timeline on the right side, showing '2013' and '2022' with 'April' highlighted in red. A screenshot of a Metropolitan Police website with the headline 'A request has been filed for records kept by Apple about recent hacking incidents' is shown on the left side of the TV.","colors":{"dominant":"#FFFFFF","palette":["#FFFFFF","#000000","#D3D3D3","#B0B0B0","#808080"]},"composition":{"angle":"eye-level","focus":"sharp","framing":"medium shot"},"mood":"informative, nostalgic","objects":[{"color":"black","name":"flat-screen TV","position":"left","state":"on, displaying graphics"},{"color":"silver and black","name":"microphone","position":"right hand","state":"held"},{"color":"black","name":"laptop","position":"bottom left, on a stand","state":"open"}],"people":[{"age_range":"20s-30s","clothing":{"accessories":"blue wristband on left wrist","bottom":"unseen","footwear":"unseen","top":"light grey t-shirt"},"face":"animated, smiling, looking towards the TV","hair":"medium-length, curly, light brown","hands":"right hand holding microphone, left hand gesturing","pose":"standing, slightly turned to the left","position":"right"}],"setting":{"architecture":"tent structure with white canvas walls and wooden poles","background":"white canvas tent wall","lighting":"bright, even, natural","location":"indoor, temporary event space"},"text_on_screen":[{"content":"METROPOLITAN POLICE","location":"top left of website screenshot","style":"blue text"},{"content":"TOTAL POLICING","location":"top right of website screenshot","style":"blue text"},{"content":"A request has been filed for records kept by Apple about recent hacking incidents","location":"headline of website screenshot","style":"black text"},{"content":"2022","location":"right side of TV","style":"white text on black background"},{"content":"April","location":"right side of TV, highlighted","style":"red bar"}]}},{"t":839,"speech":"Maybe we still are. It's just that as far as I can tell from what I read, science fiction in the 2020s is more worried about democratic backsliding and misinformation and climate apocalypse. So, there's one question left. What about 10 years from now? What about 2032? I'm not immersed in web development and technology anymore. I don't code very often. I work on video now. So, what can I predict? Well, here's the guess. Not the future, just a future. I think short-form video is going to do to YouTube what Twitter did to blogs. People will still be making long-form video content. It will still get linked to and watched, but short-form is so much simpler that there will be so much more of it. A tweet takes 10 seconds to write, requires no proofreading or punctuation, and can be amplified to the world in minutes. A blog post takes minutes or hours to write, needs spell checking and formatting, and takes time to be discovered. It's not a perfect analogy, but I have a sinking feeling that short-form video is going to win just through sheer weight of numbers. The ability for almost anyone to compete on the same easy, low-effort, low-attention-span playing field. But there's no money in it. There's no money in Twitter, just the ability to promote other stuff. There is still money in long-form writing through commissions or fan subscriptions on Patreon or other platforms. In the same way, I don't think short-form video is going to kill YouTube. After all, YouTube didn't kill television, and television didn't kill radio, but there's a transition happening, just as there was 10 years ago. If you want a prediction for 2032, it's that the boom times for this platform, for YouTube, will be over. There's one problem with that, though. YouTube is centralized. Blogs couldn't disappear because everyone hosted their own in loads of different places, often for a monthly fee, but YouTube, well, we'll have to see if in 10 years time, Google decide to shut down this old product as well.","visual":{"action":"Tom Scott stands centered in the frame, gesturing with his hands as he speaks directly to the camera. 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