11 feet. 11 feet. It's no secret that carnivals exist to make money. And to do that most effectively, they employ a bunch of little tricks to make you overestimate your chances of winning. In some cases to such an extent that it's basically a scam. So I spent a couple days coming down to this amusement park and observing and collecting data on all of the carnival games. So today I'm going to tell you which games are the biggest ripoffs and the scientific reasons of why. I even answered you how much the carnival actually pays for the prizes that people can win. But there is hope because I'll also show you some legitimate tricks on how to win the most popular games. Along with what happens when you show up to the carnival with your professional baseball playing buddy who happens to play for the New York Mets. Let's get started. Any kind of legitimate investigation needs to start with solid data as the foundation. So with the promise of unlimited churros, I had some friends secretly help me collect data on all 24 carnival games for a full day. Not only we capture how many times each game was played, but we also recorded how many times people actually won each game and the prize they won. And so the first observation based on the data we collected is that this relatively small park collects $20,000 a day off their carnival games alone. So to help frame the rest of the observations, we'll divide the games into three groups. For the first group, you've got the random chance games. Games like these where no skill is involved and you're basically just rolling dice. And for the second group, you have your skill-based games like the basketball shot or the milk bottle throw or the basket toss game where if you bring some kind of skill or strategy to the table, you can increase your chances of winning. And the final category are the games that are pretty much impossible. These ones are borderline scams. There are three games in this category that lots of people attempted and nobody won. And if they did win, like in the case of the ladder climb, it was for a very specific reason which I will address later. So let's start by talking about the random chance games. Calculating your chance of winning here is pretty straightforward. You just divide the winning outcomes by the total outcomes and you get a percentage. So in this case, there are about 1600 total cups and 160 winning cups. So that's a 10% chance or one in 10 throws will win. There are a ton of games similar to this, but the catch is they always use balls that are lightweight and have a high coefficient of restitution, meaning they bounce really well off things. This makes it much less likely the ball will end up where you originally aimed it. To illustrate this point, think how much easier this game would be with bean bags, which are heavier and don't bounce. With a ping pong ball, however, any imperfection in the aim of your original throw is magnified, which essentially randomizes things. If you have no skills, these are the games that you want to play. But don't get too excited because even when you win, you lose. After some investigative work, I uncovered the source where they order their prizes from. And so even if you got lucky and won on your first throw, it would cost you $1.50 for a prize that cost them 45 cents. But you usually don't get it on your first try. So treating this as an expected value problem in statistics, it would take you an average of five times to land it in a yellow cup, which means you pay $7.50 for something that cost them 45 cents. In the case of the big prize by landing it in the super rare gold cup, it's even worse. It would take you an average of 25 tries, which works out to $38 for something that cost them six bucks. And I'll add, the number of people we observed winning matched up pretty well with these statistical predictions. Now let's talk about the second group, which are the skill-based games. And one of the most popular in this category is the basketball toss with 825 plays the day that we observed. Now, a standard three-pointer is 24 feet back on a rim that is 10 feet off the ground. But in this case, the line is 28 feet back on a rim that is 11 feet off the ground, which is subtle, but if you have a deadly three-pointer locked into your muscle memory, you will tend to miss short, which is exactly what we saw a bunch. The reason they have the big sloped tarp in front is so that someone can't stand directly underneath the rim where the height difference would be much more apparent. And here again, even if you go Steph Curry and drain your first $3 shot, you still lose because they only paid 80 cents for that basketball. Here's another example of getting you to overestimate your chances of winning by making subtle changes because the table is slanted up slightly, which will reduce the horizontal velocity of the ball after the bounce. So even if you dominated this game all through college, your previous experience almost becomes a handicap. This measure your pitch speed game is borderline fraudulent as their radar gun registers about 15 miles an hour too slow. And I know this because I measured the distance and then recorded it in high speed and counted the frames. This pitch was clocked at 69 miles per hour, but it's much closer to 84. For the milk bottle game, the only catch here is the bottles are metal and therefore heavier and more stable and harder to knock down than a typical bottle of that size. I've seen some carnivals though where these are bottom weighted, which would make them more steady and thus less likely to tip. To figure out which kind you have, you can ask to hold it and the point at which it balances on your finger is the center of mass. The key to winning this game is hitting them right here with a hard enough throw to introduce sufficient kinetic energy. But don't throw it too hard because we noticed those who threw their hardest usually sacrificed on accuracy. About 1 in 14 people knocked this over on their first try. And then finally, we have the basket toss game. And the key here is to have your first bounce hit on this front lip to reduce the kinetic energy enough that it won't bounce back out. About one in 10 throws will win on this game according to our observations. And now this brings us to the final category of the near impossible games, and there are three of them. On this first one, the goal is to shoot out this red star completely with this automatic BB gun. So the best strategy is to basically shoot a circle around the star to cut it out. Not only are the guns not accurate or precise, but the bigger issue is that you start out doing really well because there's enough surrounding paper for the BB to easily rip through like this. But Newton's third law tells us that you can only push on something as hard as it can resist your push. So at the end, you have these barely supported pieces of the star that just move out of the way when the BB comes without building up enough stress to rip the paper. Out of 120 plays, we saw nobody win this game all day. This ring bottle game is also impossibly difficult. Again, it's a lightweight object that's really bouncy to encourage randomness. But the actual inner diameter of the ring is really close to the outer diameter of the bottle. This means that any throw besides this pretty much perfect one will send the ring bouncing away without settling in on the bottle. If you really want this bear, I suggest going on Amazon and getting it for $47. I literally can't tell you how much money this will save you because of the 840 rings we saw thrown, none stayed on a bottle. Which brings up sort of an obvious rule of thumb. If you want the feeling of winning a game, do not stop at any booth that offers really big prizes. And for the final near impossible game, let me reiterate that as a carnival owner, the most lucrative games are those which the customers overestimate their chances of success. And no game is a better example of that than the ladder climb. There's a subtle issue with this game that I think people realize but don't internalize the significance. The ladder converges to be supported on the wall at one point instead of two. If it was attached at two points, it's like crawling across a rope bridge, which is pretty easy. Let's pretend this is you. And if you shrunk all the way to your body down to the average location, we call that spot the center of mass, which we'll mark with this dot. And once again, we can double check this is the right spot because it balances perfectly on one finger. If you draw imaginary lines connecting the different support points, that creates an area. And as long as your center of mass dot is within that area, it's impossible to fall off. But as soon as your center of mass dot is even a little bit outside of the area of supports, you start to rotate and fall off. And this is true no matter which way you orient it. If you've ever bent over to pick something up, you actually know this fact, whether you realize it or not. In this case, the region of support is between the back of your heels and the tips of your toes. When you reach over, you will naturally move your butt back to keep your center of mass in between those support points. If you don't believe me, try picking something up while standing against the wall so you can't move your butt back. At the very moment your center of mass gets beyond your toes, you start to tip over. In the case of the ladder game, you're only connected at one point. So even though it looks wide because of the ladder rungs, that area of support reduces down to a line. So if you don't keep your center of mass directly above that line, you will start to rotate and fall off. In other words, to win this game, you basically need to be able to crawl across a tight rope. And you might think, well, I can do a slack line, so I can do this. But a slack line is actually much easier for two reasons. You can flail your arms and legs out to adjust your center of mass to keep it directly above that line of support. And your center of mass is higher, increasing your mass moment of inertia, making you more stable. In the same way, it's easier to balance this umbrella when it's extended versus when it's collapsed. So while there are a few videos that say tricks like maintain three points of contact, they're all basically useless because keeping your center of mass directly above a line is just something you have to get a feel for that takes a lot of practice. But once you've had enough practice, this is the one game at the carnival that's basically all skill. So you can win every time and clean them out. Unfortunately, the carnival owners know this, which is why it's also the only game with this super lame caveat. So now that we were carnival experts, I called up my buddy Matt Winker, who was recently just drafted to play baseball for the New York Mets to maximize our chances of winning any skill game that had to do with throwing. So clearly Matt had a deadly lock on any throwing game, but basketball is more my game. So to finish off the day, I decided I would bring his ego back into check. But as it turns out, if you are a world-class athlete in one sport, you are a really, really good athlete in all sports. So in conclusion, you should play the games if you think they're fun. Just know the odds are heavily stacked against you. So if you lose, it's NBD. Unlike this guy who lost his entire life savings playing carnival games. And if your motivation is to gain the love and admiration of someone special via a stuffed animal like this, you don't need carnival games to do that. Amazon works totally just as well. I just bought this for you, my lady. Thanks. You're welcome.
A man in a plaid shirt uses a yellow measuring tape to measure the height of a basketball hoop at a carnival game.
Setting: Santa Cruz Beach Boardwalk — bright, outdoor daylight
People (1):
• standing, reaching up, wearing blue and white plaid shirt over a light blue t-shirt and dark pants, short brown hair — focused
Text: "STANDARD BASKETBALL HOOP HEIGHT: 10 feet"
The man finishes measuring, turns to the camera, and announces the height with a knowing smile.
"11 feet. 11 feet."
Setting: Santa Cruz Beach Boardwalk — bright, outdoor daylight
People (1):
• standing, looking at camera, wearing blue and white plaid shirt over a light blue t-shirt and dark pants, short brown hair — smiling, pointing at the camera
The man stands on a sandy cliff and speaks directly to the camera, gesturing with his hands.
"It's no secret that carnivals exist to make money."
Setting: Cliff overlooking the Santa Cruz Beach Boardwalk — diffused, overcast daylight
People (1):
• standing, wearing blue and white plaid shirt over a light blue t-shirt with a cassette tape graphic and dark pants, short brown hair — earnest, speaking
A quick cut to a woman in a white dress kicking a soccer ball at a carnival game, missing the target.
"In some cases to such an extent that it's basically a scam."
Setting: Santa Cruz Beach Boardwalk — bright, outdoor daylight
People (1):
• walking after kicking a ball, wearing white short-sleeved dress, blonde, long hair — in profile, focused
A montage of quick cuts showing the man investigating various carnival games: looking into a booth, measuring a baseball game, and a carnival worker at a ring toss game.
"So I spent a couple days coming down to this amusement park and observing and collecting data on all of the carnival games."
Setting: Santa Cruz Beach Boardwalk — bright, outdoor daylight
People (1):
• various, wearing blue and white plaid shirt and dark pants, short brown hair — focused
A close-up shot of a man's hands holding a paper target with a star shot out of it. He pokes a tool through the hole.
"and the scientific reasons of why."
Setting: Workshop — bright, indoor lighting
People (1):
• holding objects, wearing blue and white plaid shirt, not visible hair — not visible
Text: "SHOOTING STAR, INC."
A quick sequence showing the man looking behind a carnival game, revealing cardboard boxes, then a shot of a plush toy catalog from 'Calplush'.
"I even answered you how much the carnival actually pays for the prizes that people can win."
Setting: Santa Cruz Beach Boardwalk / Computer Screen — daylight, then screen glow
Text: "CALPLUSH", "2017"
A montage of two different carnival games being played: knocking down cans with a ball and tossing a ball into bushel baskets.
"on how to win the most popular games."
Setting: Santa Cruz Beach Boardwalk — bright, outdoor daylight
People (1):
• standing, wearing blue t-shirt and black shorts, short brown hair — in profile
A young man in a Mets shirt prepares to throw a ball at a carnival game.
"who happens to play for the New York Mets."
Setting: Santa Cruz Beach Boardwalk — bright, outdoor daylight
People (1):
• mid-throw, wearing blue 'Mets Baseball' t-shirt and black shorts, short brown hair — focused, in profile
Text: "HINT:"
A rapid succession of baseballs are thrown, shattering white plates on a shelf in a carnival game.
Setting: Santa Cruz Beach Boardwalk — bright, outdoor daylight
Two men walk towards the camera in a walkway, throwing stuffed animals in the air, then catching them and posing with their arms full of prizes.
Setting: Santa Cruz Beach Boardwalk — overcast daylight
People (2):
• standing, holding prizes, wearing blue 'Mets Baseball' t-shirt and black shorts, short brown hair — smiling
• standing, holding prizes, wearing blue and white plaid shirt and dark pants, short brown hair — smiling
The man stands on a sandy cliff and speaks directly to the camera, clasping his hands.
"Let's get started."
Setting: Cliff overlooking the Santa Cruz Beach Boardwalk — diffused, overcast daylight
People (1):
• standing, wearing blue and white plaid shirt over a light blue t-shirt and dark pants, short brown hair — smiling, speaking
A fast-paced montage of scenes from the Santa Cruz Beach Boardwalk, including rides, crowds, games, and the beach.
Setting: Santa Cruz Beach Boardwalk — bright, sunny daylight
People (1):
• walking, riding rides, playing games, wearing various summer clothing, various hair — happy, excited
The man stands in a gravel lot and speaks to the camera, gesturing with his hands.
"Any kind of legitimate investigation needs to start with solid data as the foundation."
Setting: Parking lot near the Santa Cruz Beach Boardwalk — diffused, overcast daylight
People (1):
• standing, wearing blue and white plaid shirt over a light blue t-shirt and dark pants, short brown hair — speaking earnestly
A montage of people discreetly filming with their phones at the boardwalk, observing others playing games.
"I had some friends secretly help me collect data on all 24 carnival games for a full day."
Setting: Santa Cruz Beach Boardwalk — bright, sunny daylight
People (1):
• standing, wearing blue t-shirt, short black hair — focused on phone
The man continues speaking to the camera in the gravel lot, pointing his thumb over his shoulder towards the amusement park.
"And so the first observation based on the data we collected is that this relatively small park collects $20,000 a day off their carnival games alone."
Setting: Parking lot near the Santa Cruz Beach Boardwalk — diffused, overcast daylight
People (1):
• standing, wearing blue and white plaid shirt over a light blue t-shirt and dark pants, short brown hair — speaking, looking surprised
The man continues speaking, and text appears on screen to label the first category of games.
"For the first group, you've got the random chance games."
Setting: Parking lot near the Santa Cruz Beach Boardwalk — diffused, overcast daylight
People (1):
• standing, wearing blue and white plaid shirt over a light blue t-shirt and dark pants, short brown hair — speaking
Text: "1", "RANDOM CHANCE GAMES"
A shot of a carnival game where balls are dropped into a large grid of cups. A carnival worker is seen clearing the balls.
"Games like these where no skill is involved and you're basically just rolling dice."
Setting: Carnival game booth — bright, artificial lighting
People (1):
• leaning over the game, wearing blue polo shirt and dark pants, short brown hair — in profile
The man continues speaking in the gravel lot, and text appears on screen to label the second category of games.
"And for the second group, you have your skill-based games"
Setting: Parking lot near the Santa Cruz Beach Boardwalk — diffused, overcast daylight
People (1):
• standing, wearing blue and white plaid shirt over a light blue t-shirt and dark pants, short brown hair — speaking
Text: "2", "SKILL BASED GAMES"
A rapid montage shows three different skill-based carnival games: basketball shot, milk bottle throw, and basket toss.
"like the basketball shot or the milk bottle throw or the basket toss game"
Setting: Santa Cruz Beach Boardwalk — bright, outdoor daylight
People (1):
• playing games
The man continues speaking in the gravel lot, and text appears on screen to label the third category of games.
"And the final category are the games that are pretty much impossible."
Setting: Parking lot near the Santa Cruz Beach Boardwalk — diffused, overcast daylight
People (1):
• standing, wearing blue and white plaid shirt over a light blue t-shirt and dark pants, short brown hair — serious expression
Text: "3", "NEAR IMPOSSIBLE GAMES"
A young girl in pink pants attempts to climb a wobbly rope ladder game, but falls off onto the padded floor.
"There are three games in this category that lots of people attempted and nobody won."
Setting: Carnival game booth — bright, artificial lighting
People (1):
• climbing, then falling, wearing grey long-sleeved shirt and pink pants, blonde hair — concentrating, then falling
The man stands by a rocky shoreline, speaking to the camera.
"So let's start by talking about the random chance games."
Setting: Rocky shoreline — very bright, slightly hazy daylight
People (1):
• standing, wearing blue and white plaid shirt over a light blue t-shirt and dark pants, short brown hair — speaking
Text: "1", "RANDOM CHANCE GAMES"
A black screen appears with white text showing a mathematical formula for calculating win percentage.
"You just divide the winning outcomes by the total outcomes and you get a percentage."
Setting: Graphic — n/a
Text: "WINNING OUTCOMES / TOTAL OUTCOMES = WIN %"
The cup game is shown again. The image turns black and white, then the colored winning cups are highlighted, and text appears with the counts.
"So in this case, there are about 1600 total cups and 160 winning cups."
Setting: Carnival game booth — bright, artificial lighting
Text: "1600 TOTAL CUPS", "160 WINNING CUPS"
A black screen appears with white text showing the calculation for the 10% win chance.
"So that's a 10% chance or one in 10 throws will win."
Setting: Graphic — n/a
Text: "160 / 1600 = 10% WIN CHANCE"
A montage of various random chance games involving throwing lightweight balls (Plinko, floating bowl toss, goblet toss).
"but the catch is they always use balls that are lightweight and have a high coefficient of restitution,"
Setting: Santa Cruz Beach Boardwalk — bright, outdoor daylight
People (1):
• playing games
A person plays the goblet toss game, but the ball bounces wildly out of the glass.
"To illustrate this point, think how much easier this game would be with bean bags, which are heavier and don't bounce."
Setting: Carnival game booth — bright, outdoor daylight
People (1):
• playing the game, wearing green t-shirt, short hair — partially visible
The man stands by the rocky shoreline, speaking to the camera and gesturing.
"If you have no skills, these are the games that you want to play."
Setting: Rocky shoreline — very bright, slightly hazy daylight
People (1):
• standing, wearing blue and white plaid shirt over a light blue t-shirt and dark pants, short brown hair — speaking with a slight smile
The man continues speaking, his expression turning more serious as he delivers the punchline.
"But don't get too excited because even when you win, you lose."
Setting: Rocky shoreline — very bright, slightly hazy daylight
People (1):
• standing, wearing blue and white plaid shirt over a light blue t-shirt and dark pants, short brown hair — serious, speaking
A shot of a wooden surface. A stack of dimes representing the player's cost appears, followed by a much smaller stack representing the carnival's cost.
"And so even if you got lucky and won on your first throw, it would cost you $1.50 for a prize that cost them 45 cents."
Setting: Tabletop — soft, warm indoor light
A black screen with a calculation showing the number of tries needed to win the goblet game.
"it would take you an average of five times to land it in a yellow cup,"
Setting: Graphic — n/a
Text: "35 CLEAR CUPS / 7 YELLOW CUPS = 5 TRIES TO WIN"
A shot of a wooden surface. A large stack of quarters representing the player's cost appears, followed by a much smaller stack representing the carnival's cost.
"which means you pay $7.50 for something that cost them 45 cents."
Setting: Tabletop — soft, warm indoor light
A shot of a wooden surface. A very large stack of quarters representing the player's cost for the grand prize appears, followed by a much smaller stack representing the carnival's cost.
"which works out to $38 for something that cost them six bucks."
Setting: Tabletop — soft, warm indoor light
The man stands by the rocky shoreline, speaking to the camera.
"Now let's talk about the second group, which are the skill-based games."
Setting: Rocky shoreline — very bright, slightly hazy daylight
People (1):
• standing, wearing blue and white plaid shirt over a light blue t-shirt and dark pants, short brown hair — speaking
Text: "2", "SKILL BASED GAMES"
An animated stick figure is shown standing on a line, with dimensions appearing for a standard 3-point shot in basketball.
Setting: Graphic — n/a
Text: "24'", "10'"
The animation changes to show the dimensions for the carnival basketball game, which are longer and higher than the standard.
"But in this case, the line is 28 feet back on a rim that is 11 feet off the ground,"
Setting: Graphic — n/a
Text: "28'", "11'"
A montage of people playing the carnival basketball game and missing their shots short, hitting the front of the rim.
"you will tend to miss short, which is exactly what we saw a bunch."
Setting: Santa Cruz Beach Boardwalk — bright, outdoor daylight
People (1):
• shooting pose — focused, disappointed
A screenshot of a wholesale website shows the bulk price for a basketball prize.
"you still lose because they only paid 80 cents for that basketball."
Setting: Computer Screen — n/a
Text: "MLB 'BIG LOGO' Basketball"
A man plays a beer-pong style carnival game, and the ball bounces off the slanted table, missing the cups.
"because the table is slanted up slightly, which will reduce the horizontal velocity of the ball after the bounce."
Setting: Carnival game booth — bright, outdoor daylight
People (1):
• leaning forward to throw, wearing white long-sleeved shirt, not visible hair — focused
A young man in a blue Mets shirt throws a baseball at a speed pitch game.
"This measure your pitch speed game is borderline fraudulent as their radar gun registers about 15 miles an hour too slow."
Setting: Carnival game booth — bright, outdoor daylight
People (1):
• throwing motion, wearing blue t-shirt and black shorts, short brown hair — focused, mid-throw
The young man throws another pitch. The radar gun shows '69', but the narrator disputes this.
"This pitch was clocked at 69 miles per hour, but it's much closer to 84."
Setting: Carnival game booth — bright, outdoor daylight
People (1):
• throwing motion, wearing blue t-shirt and black shorts, short brown hair — focused
Text: "69"
A man in a pink shirt throws a ball at a stack of metal milk bottles, but they don't all fall over.
"For the milk bottle game, the only catch here is the bottles are metal and therefore heavier and more stable and harder to knock down than a typical bottle of that size."
Setting: Carnival game booth — bright, outdoor daylight
People (1):
• mid-throw, wearing pink polo shirt and black pants, not visible hair — in profile
A close-up of a hand balancing a dart on a finger. A graphic appears to label the center of mass.
"and the point at which it balances on your finger is the center of mass."
Setting: Workshop — bright, indoor lighting
People (1):
• holding a dart, wearing blue and white plaid shirt, not visible hair — not visible
Text: "CENTER OF MASS"
A ball hits the stack of metal bottles at the base, successfully knocking them all over.
"The key to winning this game is hitting them right here with a hard enough throw to introduce sufficient kinetic energy."
Setting: Carnival game booth — bright, outdoor daylight
A man in a blue shirt successfully plays the basket toss game by bouncing the ball off the front lip of the basket.
"And then finally, we have the basket toss game. And the key here is to have your first bounce hit on this front lip to reduce the kinetic energy enough that it won't bounce back out."
Setting: Santa Cruz Beach Boardwalk — bright, outdoor daylight
People (1):
• standing, wearing blue t-shirt, short brown hair — in profile, smiling
The man stands by the rocky shoreline, speaking to the camera.
"And now this brings us to the final category of the near impossible games, and there are three of them."
Setting: Rocky shoreline — very bright, slightly hazy daylight
People (1):
• standing, wearing blue and white plaid shirt over a light blue t-shirt and dark pants, short brown hair — speaking
Text: "3", "NEAR IMPOSSIBLE GAMES"
The narrator explains the strategy for the star shooting game.
"So the best strategy is to basically shoot a circle around the star to cut it out."
Setting: Rocky shoreline — very bright, slightly hazy daylight
People (1):
• standing, wearing blue and white plaid shirt over a light blue t-shirt and dark pants, short brown hair — speaking
In a workshop, a tool is used to poke several holes in a piece of paper, demonstrating how it tears.
"because there's enough surrounding paper for the BB to easily rip through like this."
Setting: Workshop — bright indoor light
People (1):
• performing an action, wearing plaid shirt, not visible hair — not visible
A close-up of the nearly-shot-out star target. A tool pushes on the remaining paper fragments, which bend instead of tearing away.
"that just move out of the way when the BB comes without building up enough stress to rip the paper."
Setting: Workshop — bright indoor light
People (1):
• demonstrating, not visible hair — not visible
A shot of the ring toss game, with a pyramid of glass bottles. People are playing in the background.
"This ring bottle game is also impossibly difficult."
Setting: Carnival game booth — bright, outdoor daylight
People (1):
• playing the game, wearing pink t-shirt, dark hair — in profile